In November 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a stark warning: the global oil market is heading into one of the largest surpluses on record. According to its latest Oil Market Report published 13 November, supply is expected to exceed demand by as much as 4.09 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026. Reuters
The agency noted that global supply through 2025 already rose by about 3.1 million b/d, as production increases from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries outpaced demand growth. IEA
Meanwhile, in the United States, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that oil inventories will continue to build through 2026, placing downward pressure on prices. hydrocarbonengineering.com
The implications for investors and energy companies are significant: a large surplus may force producers to cut back output, delay new projects, or accept lower margins. Analysts warn that some support price levels near $60 per barrel, but sustained upside seems limited unless demand improves. Reuters
For companies and nations with high production costs, the coming year may be a test of endurance — as oversupply, maintenance return, and weak demand converge.
